Envisioning Rust Belt Success

If you can't imagine what your future holds, you can't achieve it. And yes, there is a future for the broader Midwest.

My Defining Rust Belt Urbanism piece three weeks ago, in which I discuss the themes of what would drive Midwest urban rebirth, prompted a great question. Bloomberg Opinion columnist, CSY subscriber and avowed Sun Belt enthusiast asked me on X (formerly Twitter) – what does Rust Belt success look like?

It’s a good question, because there are lots of people who don’t think there is much of a path to success for the urban centers of the nation’s heartland. Most of today’s urbanists seem to believe the templates have been set already. One is to get with the program forged by the coastal cities, leaning into a winning economic sector you’re uniquely suited for, or continue to fall behind. Another other option is to get with the program touted by Sun Belt cities. Market lifestyle, climate and affordability, and watch the people roll in.

In reality, urban rebound is much more complex than either of those examples would imply. Yet the fact remains that the path to success has to be tailored to the place. Before going into the ways that Rust Belt cities can turn around, let’s dig a little deeper into how coastal and Sun Belt metros reversed their fortunes and made economic leaps. (A parenthetic comment: I’m using the term “Rust Belt” here, but really writing about the largest metros within the twelve-state region most people generally call the Midwest – Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska and Kansas. I often use the terms interchangeably.)

The Coastal Cities Template

There’s one key difference between coastal cities and Rust Belt cities that is rarely recognized. Through the middle of the 20^th century, coastal cities indeed had strong manufacturing economies cities like those in the Rust Belt. Yet they also grew and developed with stronger corporate and service economies. Using the three-sector model of economic activity, from their beginning coastal cities were able to develop a blend of primary (resource extraction), secondary (manufacturing) and tertiary (sales, transport and distribution) economic sectors. That allowed coastal cities to build on their assets from tertiary economic output (universities, hospitals, financial services, media and publishing) that formed the foundation of the knowledge or creative class economy that drives them today. With a weaker tertiary sector that didn’t produce quite the same output as that of the coastal cities (and probably an implicit acknowledgement made by people throughout the country that the coastal outputs were better than those in the middle of the country), Rust Belt cities lagged.

Coastal cities were then ready for a period in which the global economy leaned in their favor. That economic shift allowed them to stabilize local economies more quickly. It allowed them to focus more on quality-of-life improvements that led to reduced crime, improved schools and other public services. Coastal cities were ready to appeal to a demographic that was increasingly demanding what they offered.  

The Sun Belt Template

I think it’s better to view the Sun Belt template from two different geographical prisms, a southern perspective and a western perspective.

Following its loss in the Civil War the South lost a whole economic and social system – the slave-centered plantation economy. The South tried to replace the social aspects of their system through Jim Crow laws and expanding the sharecropping economy. But the South still struggled to build a new economy as long as it continued to rely on agriculture and cheap labor.

That is, until after World War II. The South didn’t rebound until people in other regions appreciated its low taxes, climate and affordability. Technology and infrastructure (air conditioning, interstate highways, air travel) made the region more livable and accessible. Eventually the South developed new regional commercial centers that also tapped into the rising knowledge economy, but with a quality-of-life value proposition. Cities like Atlanta, Dallas, Houston, Miami and Nashville prospered.

Mountain West and Desert Southwest cities ended up in similar position as their Southern cohorts but started from a different place. They also lost an economy (mineral and resource extraction) that was unable to compete with efficient and effective automation. The region’s aridity made water a critical element that slowed development as a water infrastructure system was built.

However, after World War II, things changed in the West as they did in the South. Low taxes, climate and affordability drew more attention to them, and the same technologies that aided the South aided the West as well. Western cities suddenly offered the same value proposition as Southern cities. Denver, Las Vegas, Phoenix, Salt Lake City and Tucson became prime destinations.

Two caveats for Rust Belt proponents. One cannot underestimate the impact that Southern and Western military bases, attracting millions of WWII conscripts (and later, Korea and Vietnam) from around the country, had on transforming opinions on both regions. That turned out to be a significant federal investment that paid off in the development of the Sun Belt for decades.

It’s also important to note that the cities that thrived during the first iterations of Southern and Western economies were not all able to make full comebacks. Charleston, Savannah, Richmond, Memphis, New Orleans were dominant port cities and river towns that were later supplanted by newer cities. The West is dotted with old, formerly prosperous ghost towns that disappeared when the minerals disappeared. A similar process could be in the works in the Rust Belt.

There are some things to consider as we evaluate future Rust Belt urban success, or American urban success in general. For one, the high population growth rates of the past are exactly that – a thing of the past. Mature, developed nations have seen lower birth rates for decades, and the U.S. is no different. Unless there’s true immigration reform that creates more pathways to citizenship, we’ll need to get more accustomed to modest population changes in cities. Looking at economic- and income-related data, and quality-of-life stats, might prove to be a truer evaluation measure of urban success for all cities. Secondly, as mentioned above regarding the South, it’s conceivable that the Rust Belt’s ultimate winners won’t be the same as the cities of the past. Lastly, the next economic revolution will dictate what will be winners and losers as well. Will AI, or widespread renewable energy, or something else, be at the forefront of future city growth? Who knows? But it will determine which cities will prosper and which ones won’t.

The Midwest’s subregions – and why they’re important

Each of our nation’s regions have subregional characteristics that lend their identity to the entire region. The Boston-to-DC megalopolis defines the entire East Coast, but immediately west of them are pristine mountains and valleys, dotted with numerous small towns. The old South was defined by the production of cotton on plantations along the Gulf Coast and Mississippi delta. Today’s new South identity is tied to strong universities and research centers in Virginia, North Carolina and Georgia. The pioneer-led mining towns of the West gave way to ski resorts, senior living communities and global gaming destinations.

The point is the broad regions of America are complex places that can’t easily be characterized by one part of them. The regions are made up of smaller areas that, at various times, set the tone for the entire region. The Midwest is no different. The Midwest has been defined by its fertile farmland, its mineral wealth, and its expansive plains. The differences between the region’s cities are a result of differences in settlement patterns by various groups and the utilization of resources to establish local economies.  

North Woods: North Woods communities have the coldest winters and most snow, and rightfully have the least population as well. However, the North Woods also has enough natural environment appeal to set their own standard of rebirth. Lake Michigan throughout Wisconsin and Michigan have tons of short-term vacation getaway places to build on. There are already examples of the type in the region – Traverse City, MI, Door County, WI. These cities will never likely be large, but could be beautiful and affluent communities. Think Vermont.

Lower Lakes (Rust Belt): There are a couple of Rust Belt types to consider for future success. The first group is larger cities like Buffalo, Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit, Milwaukee, and Pittsburgh. These cities should focus on bringing their manufacturing legacies into the tech era. Some have been doing this already: Chicago’s foothold in transportation/logistics and food processing is teaming with its finance connections to strengthen its economy, while Detroit is doing its part to turn the auto industry into a tech industry. Buffalo, Cleveland, Milwaukee, and Pittsburgh have all jumped into the eds and meds arena with emphasis on life sciences and bioscience. All would benefit from strengthening their service sectors and becoming stronger hubs for their surrounding environs.

The second group includes midsize and small cities like Gary, Madison, Rockford, Kalamazoo, Flint, Saginaw, Youngstown, Erie, and many more. Some can become gateways to nearby natural assets. Others can become smaller versions of the eds and meds centers. The availability of abundant fresh water could also make this smaller group more attractive to investment and development, especially if drought and sea level rise make fresh water more valuable in the coming decades.

Heartland: The large metros of the Heartland, at least as I define it, might be the most successful metros within the Midwest. In general, the Heartland has not been burdened by the same manufacturing legacies as the Lower Lakes/Rust Belt. Metros like Columbus, Indianapolis and Des Moines have been able to prosper because of their position as state capitals, while West Lafayette, Bloomington (IN), Champaign/Urbana, and Iowa City stand out as exemplary college towns. The template’s been established here, especially since these cities are unlikely to surpass the larger cities north of them in population.

Midsize and smaller cities and more rural areas, however, are in more dire straits than larger Heartland cities. Stick with agriculture/food processing-based economies.

Midland Valley: In many respects I’d say the Midland Valley cities along the Ohio and Mississippi rivers are a blend of the Heartland cities just north of them and the Lower Lakes/Rust Belt cities even further north. They’re generally the oldest cities in the region and had the same manufacturing legacy as the Rust Belt cities (St. Louis, Pittsburgh). I’d say Midland Valley cities are more culturally like Heartland cities – Midland Valley and Heartland places have a slight Appalachian/Southern flavor – but they haven’t been viewed as Midwestern “winners” in the way that Columbus and Indianapolis have over the last couple of decades. What Midland Valley cities do share with their Lower Lakes/Rust Belt colleagues is a troubled racial past. At various times Cincinnati, Louisville and St. Louis have had racial conflict not unlike what happened in Cleveland, Chicago and Detroit.

I see Midland Valley cities pursuing the same path as the Lower Lakes/Rust Belt cities. Maximize your eds and meds advantages (St. Louis and Pittsburgh are already doing well with this) and strengthen your service economies.

Plains: The Plains subregion might be the hardest for me to imagine an alternate path to urban success. It’s the most sparsely populated subregion in the Midwest and, like the fellow lightly populated region North Woods, hasn’t really been reliant on cities for success. I’d put the Twin Cities and Kansas City as large metros on the cusp of the Plains but not completely within it, and the ones best suited to appeal to rural Plains residents with urban aspirations. Beyond that I can envision the Omaha/Lincoln combination, Des Moines and Topeka being more of what they already are as solid state capitals and commercial hubs for modestly populated hinterlands.

There are achievable futures for Midwest metros. If other regions of the nation can reimagine themselves, so can this one.