New Chicago, Old Chicago, Same Chicago

Source: theatlantic.com

When I started as a planner with the City of Chicago more than 30 years ago, working on a community plan for a chunk of the city’s South Side, I used to try to drum up community participation by telling residents that cities redevelop themselves from the inside out. I’d say that the building boom seen in the Loop would one day expand outward to include your neighborhood, and if you didn’t contribute your input on your neighborhood’s future, be prepared to be rolled over by the future that eventually shows up at your doorstep. I don't think they really believed me. The fresh-out-of-planning-school me had no idea how prescient that position would be.

Anyone who’s been interested in my writing over the years has probably seen the “tale of two cities” often when I discuss Chicago and other Rust Belt cities. In fact I’ve probably driven that narrative into the ground. But I’m here to give you the latest installment of Chicago: The Divided City, because the 2020 Census data released earlier this month illustrates two distinct features: 1) a New Chicago is rapidly replacing Old Chicago, and 2) the gulf between them is likely widening, not shrinking.

Last week on Twitter I posted a map of population change within the city’s 77 Community Areas, which are basically groupings of collections of neighborhoods in the city established by sociologists almost 100 years ago. They’re great for looking at more granular changes in the city. Here’s the map:

Much to the surprise of many, Chicago posted an overall gain of 1.9% in population between 2010 and 2020. Surprising because the annual American Community Survey estimates produced by the Census Bureau since 2011 have consistently shown a decline in population. However, it seems the estimates don’t reflect the actual count seen in 2020. That’s good news for the city overall.

But look closely and it’s clear the entire city did not share the good fortune. Chicago’s lakefront communities, from Rogers Park in the north to South Shore in the south, show pretty strong population growth over the last decade. In fact, the areas closest to the city's center, the Loop, the Near North Side, Near West Side and Near South Side, had the strongest growth. Taken together, the roughly 60-square-mile area that hugs the lake grew by 9.5%, adding more than 100,000 people, with the core alone contributing more than half of the growth. The vast majority of land that comprise the inland parts of the city, however, lost 3.3%, falling by more than 50,000 people.

That isn’t particularly enlightening if you simply considered Chicago’s lakefront exclusively as Chicago’s north lakefront, as many people have for decades. But during the last ten years population growth had a dramatic expansion to the south, including neighborhoods that had not seen population growth at all since 1950. What’s emerging is a new divide in the city, between the lakefront and inland areas, replacing the old north/south divide. You can see this in the map below. The dark green is the growing core of Chicago, pre-2010; the light green is the area added in the last decade. The light yellow represents the rest of the city that overall lost population.

A couple of thoughts about the New Chicago/Old Chicago divide. Not all of New Chicago showed a population gain, and not all of Old Chicago lost residents. Logan Square (#22 on the map above) and the Lower West Side/Pilsen (#31) are included in the New Chicago boundaries but actually lost population. How so? Both have seen a dramatic increase in the number of new households via new development, but population loss stems from a decline in household size – new singles and couples are replacing families. Similarly, Chatham (#44) and parts of the Southwest Side and Northwest Side near Chicago’s major airports gained residents. All are known as strongholds of what remains of Chicago’s middle class, buoyed by large numbers of municipal workers who are required to live in the city. The Northwest and Southwest Side neighborhoods have the added bonus of being near the job-rich transportation and industrial jobs near the airports, and a suburban-like environment within the city.

What does it all mean? First, check this out:

In the coming weeks and months we’ll get more information on the race, ethnicity and socio-economic status of residential changes at a more granular level. Early results, as shown in the American Community Survey data through 2019, indicate that the entire lakefront area is rapidly becoming wealthier, more educated, more diverse and much more dense. Even the south lakefront. The balance of the city is posting rising numbers in the same areas, but much more slowly. Again, no surprise there. But the numbers in the table above show that New Chicago isn’t that far from completely supplanting Old Chicago as the majority of the city. If that happens, Chicago will complete its transition away from its Rust Belt heritage toward its global city future.