Not relative to "where" as much as "what". I'd say American economic growth is predicated on population growth, and strong population growth for centuries is one thing that stands out here compared to almost *any* developed nation. But I would say that Americans have much more freedom of movement in pursuit of economic opportunity, and that factors into that conclusion.
Americans have much more technical freedom of movement; however the hide-bound regulatory-capture of the American housing market and land-use regime results in little practical freedom of movement. :(
I'm in Michigan, where the rural north of the state is in steady population decline and near economic free-fall. I am in my urban neighborhood where property values increase roughly a Starbucks Vente Latte every single day. Someone in Presque Isle county - where the median age is ~54 [yeah!] and at 20 souls/sq/mile [imagine that economy!] - is going to need a true hail mary to get relocated those 250 miles.
It's pretty darn depressing. How does this end well?
It's going to get worse. Leaving aside immigration, deaths in the US will exceed births within less than a decade, which means either we allow more immigrants, or we see more shrinkage and 'doom loops' in smaller metros. If we're going to deal with this at all effectively, we will have to get over our association of growth with success, and shrinkage with failure, and do so soon. Hard to imagine, though.
I've been thinking about this more as I care for my elderly parents. The caregiving burden is so large I can't seriously consider moving out, getting married and having kids. It makes me concerned about my own future (albeit perhaps with eyes wider open about it than my parents' were) and wonder how I can avoid passing this burden on to younger generations, who will probably be compelled to pay higher taxes to cover Medicare and Sacial Security.
I take your point that locally shrinking population is a problem, but I don't follow the thinking behind the US being *uniquely* ill-suited to deal with this problem. (Relative to where? Korea? Italy? Argentina?)
Not relative to "where" as much as "what". I'd say American economic growth is predicated on population growth, and strong population growth for centuries is one thing that stands out here compared to almost *any* developed nation. But I would say that Americans have much more freedom of movement in pursuit of economic opportunity, and that factors into that conclusion.
Americans have much more technical freedom of movement; however the hide-bound regulatory-capture of the American housing market and land-use regime results in little practical freedom of movement. :(
I'm in Michigan, where the rural north of the state is in steady population decline and near economic free-fall. I am in my urban neighborhood where property values increase roughly a Starbucks Vente Latte every single day. Someone in Presque Isle county - where the median age is ~54 [yeah!] and at 20 souls/sq/mile [imagine that economy!] - is going to need a true hail mary to get relocated those 250 miles.
It's pretty darn depressing. How does this end well?
It's going to get worse. Leaving aside immigration, deaths in the US will exceed births within less than a decade, which means either we allow more immigrants, or we see more shrinkage and 'doom loops' in smaller metros. If we're going to deal with this at all effectively, we will have to get over our association of growth with success, and shrinkage with failure, and do so soon. Hard to imagine, though.
I've been thinking about this more as I care for my elderly parents. The caregiving burden is so large I can't seriously consider moving out, getting married and having kids. It makes me concerned about my own future (albeit perhaps with eyes wider open about it than my parents' were) and wonder how I can avoid passing this burden on to younger generations, who will probably be compelled to pay higher taxes to cover Medicare and Sacial Security.
I take your point that locally shrinking population is a problem, but I don't follow the thinking behind the US being *uniquely* ill-suited to deal with this problem. (Relative to where? Korea? Italy? Argentina?)